There has been a thought stuck in my head for months. This thought involves how quarterbacks are evaluated. Sure there’s QB rating, completion percentage, conversion rates, yada yada yada, and they are all well and good. But none of them focused on something I, as a fan and someone with (very, very, extremely minor) quarterbacking experience, find to be an extremely important factor in a quarterback’s play: time in the pocket and how they use it. With that in mind I set about trying to create a new statistic to measure quarterback efficiency, cleverly naming it Quarterback Efficiency Rating (QER). Now, I created a series of formulas to calculate different game situations that would assign a rating to every play where a quarterback dropped back with the intention of passing, but quickly found that attempting to time a football game with any semblance of accuracy without a DVR was impossible, so field testing couldn’t be done until I was home for break. Since coming home a few weeks ago I have tried the statistic on a very limited basis (6 total quarters of NFL football). So far it shows promise, but I know its not perfect by any stretch. There are certain situations that seem too lopsided one way or the other, certain factors in the scoring that are honestly random numbers I decided to assign certain events, and the formatting for the totals may be off-putting to some people. 

With all those thoughts in mind I figured what better way to fix any problems than to let people smarter than me take a look at an critique my work. Some quick notes before a full explanation of the statistic: all yardage numbers used are not official, I used the announcers and some quick eyeballing for most of them, so they may be a little off, and the time in the pocket is all hand-timed and therefore subject to human error, but for the most part yards and time should be pretty close to the actual numbers.

Key:

QER=Quarterback Efficiency Rating

TIP=Time in the Pocket (defined as snap of the ball to release/sack/crossing the line of scrimmage)

C=First Down Conversion

TD=Touchdown

F=Fumble

FL=Fumble Lost

INT=Interception

INC=Incompletion

YDS=Yards gained/lost

Formula:

Completed Passes/Scrambles for Positive Yards= (YDS/TIP)/10+1(C)+10(TD)

Incomplete/Intercepted Passes= (TIP x -1)/10-10(INT)

Sacks= (((TIP x YDS LOST)/10)/2)-1-3(F)-7(FL)¹

Plays that result in negative yardage= (TIP x YDS LOST)/10

¹ Lost fumble counts as both F and FL on such plays, for a total of -10.

Now, this formula results largely in numbers in the range of 1.5 and lower, rounded to the second decimal place, which initially makes it hard to discern good play from bad due to the small size of the totals produced. However, when applied to a full game, and even one half, it has proven to be quite effective in indicating the superior quarterback (albeit in games where that could be easily discerned by the naked eye). The results from the admittedly miniscule sample size below.

Game 1-Colts at Jaguars, 12/17/09, second half only.

I forgot to record the full game, missing my chance to evaluate the first half. My bad.

At halftime the score was 21-17 in favor of the Colts, who would go on to win 35-31 for their 14th and final win of the season.

Both quarterbacks played well in the second half, each totaling over 100 yards and 2 scores through the air. Watching the game however it appeared that Peyon Manning was performing on a higher level than Jacksonville’s David Garrard (big shocker there), and that was reflected quite well by the QER.

P. Manning’s totals:

Passing plays: 18

Completions: 11

Passes intercepted: 0

Fumbles: 0

Lost: 0

Sacked: 0

First downs converted: 7

Total TIP: 44.11 seconds

Total Yards: 180

Total QER: 23.13

QER/Play: 1.29

TIP/Play: 2.45 seconds

D. Garrard’s totals:

Passing plays: 25

Completions: 11

Passes intercepted: 0

Fumbles: 0

Lost: 0

Sacked: 1

First downs converted: 6

Total TIP: 64.46 seconds

Total yards: 117 (includes yards lost due to sack)

Total QER: 15.55

QER/Play: .62

TIP/Play: 2.59 seconds

Using the new QER metric indicates Peyton Manning was over twice as efficient in the pocket as Garrard in the second half, and one would be hard pressed to argue that having watched the actual performances of both players. One half of football, however, is not a reliable way to verify the accuracy of the metric.

Game 2-Giants at Redskins, 12/21/09

This game is already infamous for the incredible ineptitude shown by everyone associated with the Washington Redskins, and also involves the other Manning brother.

E. Manning’s totals:

Passing plays: 29

Completions: 19

Passes intercepted: 0

Fumbles: 0

Lost: 0

Sacked: 2

First downs converted: 10

Total TIP: 74.48 seconds

Total Yards: 255

Total QER: 43.55

QER/Play: 1.5

TIP/Play: 2.5 seconds

Jason Campbell’s totals:

Passing plays: 35

Completions: 15

Passes intercepted: 2

Fumbles: 1

Lost: 0

Sacked: 5

First downs converted: 10

Total TIP: 100.32 seconds

Total Yards: 180

Total QER: -3.67

QER/Play: -.1

TIP/Play: 2.87 seconds

Again, one can’t help but say the metric proved true, as Campbell was horrendous and Manning played one of his better games all season, once again leaving yours truly with feelings of both confidence and trepidation. Since then I haven’t gotten around to testing the stat due to the holidays and preparing for next semester. That being said I have been thinking of practical applications for the statistic and the primary one seems to be in terms of scouting college and free agent QBs and determining which ones thrive given a certain amount of time in the pocket, useful for systems that require quicker decisions and teams with poor O-lines, as well as for determining which of two quarterbacks will fit best on a specific offense. I’ll probably record the BCS title game tonight and apply the staistic by next week to see how well that theory holds up.

Well, that’s it. Now it’s your turn. What works? What doesn’t? What have I forgotten or missed? Am I a complete moron wasting hvs time?

With your help I hope to answer all these questions and more.

Oh yeah, the new one is run by a bunch of Yankee fans, so I apologize in advance.

I apologize in advance for the number one post right now, its really our first NSFW one, also, though we frown on profanity as a crutch,  occasionally it gets in there, sorry.

I’ll try and put up at least two new posts later in the week.

In the meantime go Cardinals and may the Fitz be with you!

Arizona Cardinals: Typing the words “Arizona Cardinals” just now was one of the more surreal moments of my life. For years we’ve known there was talent on the Arizona roster, with the Dynamic Duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin catching passes from an aging, but still serviceable Kurt Warner. The problem had been a lack of defense and a solid running game, the latter of which was NOT solved by Edge James, but they have found a decent enough stable of running backs to keep defenses on their heels enough for the passing game to flourish. And while the defense isn’t going to set the world on fire, guys like Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby, Adrian Wilson, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie-Smithington-James III are all defensive playmakers that have stepped up so far in the playoffs (just ask Jake Delhomme). Throw Steve Breaston (do you realize he had over 1,000 receiving yards? One of 3 receivers on this squad that reached that number) and his kick-return prowess and this is a dangerous team that can score a lot of points really fast.

Philadelphia Eagles: Led by Donovan “Willie Beamen” McNabb this is Philly’s fifth NFC title game appearance in the last ten years. They’ve only made it to the Super Bowl on one of those occasions, which they summarily lost to the New England Patriots Dynasty. After having everything go right on the final week of the regular season, the Eagles were a team no one expected anything out of, but they just keep surprising people. Brian Westbrook is dangerous every time he touches the ball, but has been listed as questionable since Pee Wee football, and his status for this Sunday is looking to be up in the air (my guess: he’ll play). The true strength of this Eagles team is Jim Johnson’s defense. It is a fast, hard-hitting squad that destroys teams with well-timed blitz packages.

Prediction: Cardinals win 34-24, world slowly starts coming to an end.

AFC Match-up: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, the cause of much consternation and vitriol over at KSK.

Pittsburgh Stillers: Big Ben and many of the Steelers have been here before, and already have Super Bowl rings. Fast Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Big Ben lead a good Steeler offense that benefits from a defense that gets them the ball a ton. But the strength for Pittsburgh is their top ranked defense, led by Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison and linebacker corp that is absolutely nightmarish, and Troy Polamalu making plays in the secondary. The defense will be playing against a rookie quarterback for the Ravens, but a rookie that has played them extremely close twice already this season. The Steelers are the best team left in the post-season, and a team everyone should be afraid of.

Baltimore Ravens: The thing is, the Ravens aren’t afraid of them. So far in the playoffs Baltimore has made it look easy, stifling teams with a defense that is almost as likely to score as the offense. Joe “Power of the Unibrow” Flacco has performed admirably all season leading the Ravens to the playoffs in his rookie campaign, and leading them to this point once they got there. The best rookie playoff performance ever in terms of wins, Flacco has proven himself to be a good game manager that works well within the Baltimore offense, utilizing Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton very well, all the while having the three-headed monster in the backfield of McGahee, Rice, and McClain. The defense is the key to Baltimore’s success however. Led by Ray “Stabby” Lewis and his marauding band of thieves, they have just been shutting teams down and taking the ball away from them. Ed Reed is a special player, and may go down as the greatest safety ever, a guy that you just expect to make plays, electrifying with the ball in his hand.

Prediction: Ravens win, 27-24 on a Matt Stover field goal following an Ed Reed pick in the last five minutes.

Yep, thats my school right there. You stay classy, Peoria.

At this point one must ask what else could possibly go wrong? Reggie Wayne slips on a soup spoon and gets hit by a bus? Adam Vinatieri decides to live in isolation as a Buddhist monk? Bob Sanders becomes injury prone (wait a minute…)?

And its not like the Pacers are helping matters much.

But keep your chin up Indianapolis, it could always be worse, you could be Seattle.

Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech-While it is just a “sources say” situation at this point, I have to believe that the two-time Biletnikoff award winner is going to try his hand at dominating the pros the same way he has college.

Prediction: Crabtree goes number one overall to the Detroit Lions (because that’s what they do), lining up opposite Calvin Johnson. The Lions continue to ignore their problems at quarterback, however, and sign Kyle Boller, hoping that he can carry the team while they develop Tim Tebow, who they will be taking with their second pick of the first round (again, because that’s what they do). Mediocrity ensues until he strike out through free agency at the first possible second. He will then sign with his hometown Dallas Cowboys and start to shine, making 7 consecutive Pro Bowl appearances, including two 15 TD seasons. He then retires and goes on to run a successful chain of surf and turf restaurants in the greater Dallas area.

Tim Tebow, QB, Florida-At this point it looks like he’ll probably be staying for a fourth year, but for continuity’s sake
we’re going to say he’s accomplished enough in three years (Wait a minute, what hasn’t he accomplished? You know, why IS he staying?) and wants to try his luck in the NFL, despite what the draft experts are saying.

Prediction: Told time and again that he will have to switch positions and play tight end in the pros, complete with numerous Frank Wycheck comparisons, Tebow declares that he will only play quarterback in the pros, and any team that wants him is getting him at that position. This scares off everyone else, which in turn shoots him up the Lions draft board. With their second pick of the first round from Dallas the Lions draft him as their QB of the future. He sits until the 12th week of the season, at which point he debuts halfway through a 28 point loss. He completes half his passes and throws 1 touchdown and 1 interception, and rushes for 55 yards and another score. Over the course of the next three years he completes less than half his throws and has a nearly 3 to 1 INT-TD ratio, and finishes with a record of 11-42 as a starter. He moves on to a Hall of Fame career as a tight end for the Patriots. After retiring from the NFL he will go on to open up a strip club called “Tebowners.”

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Mizzou

Prediction: Brett Favre holds New York, Peter King, and ESPN hostage for nearly two months leading up to the draft before announcing that he will be returning. The Jets turn their focus to receivers to compliment the gunslinger and draft Maclin 17th overall. He is a successful deep threat and a more successful kick returner, and sales of Maclin jerseys are through the roof in the New York-New Jersey area. He is nearing HoF status after his 13th season, but tears his ACL in training camp and retires a Jets legend. Spends the rest of his days as a cruise ship director.

Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State

Prediction: Drafted 5th overall by the Browns, he immediately becomes the starter. Along with Brady Quinn he ushers in a new era of Cleveland football, an era where they aren’t good, but they aren’t bad, finishing between 7-9 and 9-7 year after year. He is chronically plagued by injuries, and despite several 1000 yard seasons he never fully lives up to his expectations. Is forever remembered for fumbling 4 times in a divisional playoff game. Goes on to run a small business called Beanies Beanies that sells knit hats and scarves. Brady Quinn is his biggest customer.

Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Prediction: Drafted third overall by the Kansas City Chiefs, he competes for the starting job right away. He performs admirably in the pre-season, but the Chiefs wisely let Tyler Thigpen start the year. After sitting for the entire season he starts in his second year and promptly leads the Chiefs to the playoffs. KC becomes a contender year after year, and the combination of playing against both Bradford and Cutler twice a year each drives Phillip Rivers crazy and he drops out of football, only to resurface as Tebow’s replacement in Detroit.

Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Prediction: Drafted 2nd by the Rams, he starts right away, taking over Orlando Pace’s old spot. He quickly becomes one of the NFL’s premier lineman, but the rest of his line can only be described as “porous”, and everyone that takes snaps in the Rams backfield for a decade finds himself eating turf 40 or so times a season. He spends his entire career in St. Louis, but his team’s epic levels of failure overshadow his otherwise brilliant career. He spends his retirement competing in eating contests and hawking fried chicken.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

Prediction: Taken just after Bradford by the Seahawks, Stafford starts the last 3 games of the year after spending the first 13 weeks as Hasselbeck’s back-up. He’s the starter by his second year, and Hasslebeck moves on to another team. Stafford spends the next ten years as an above average QB, but plays for five different teams.

P.J. Hill, RB, Wisconsin

Prediction: He overestimates his draft stock and falls to the Packers in the third round. Is converted to a fullback, a position at which he enjoys a long and successful career. He is inducted into the Packer’s Hall of Fame.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

Prediction: His draft stock tumbles at the combine, and he falls to the Bengals in the second round. After several seasons alternating between being the feature and third-down back he is found to be the mastermind behind a crack group of professional criminals that attempt to rob the Wynn Casino in Vegas. He flees the country but is extradited after getting a speeding ticket in England. Spends 20 years in jail.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

Prediction: After exploding against West Virginia his draft stock rises, and he is drafted in the second round by the Jets, giving Favre another weapon. He shows early promise, snaring 11 TD catches his rookie year and providing highlight reel catches every night. He starts his second year better than his first, until he suffers a broken foot. He never fully recovers and averages 6 touchdown catches a year for the next seven. Turns to coaching as a way to stay in the game. Never rises above assistant coach, but is happy in his profession. Spends the off-seasons golfing with Favre and Michael Jordan.

Glenn Coffee, RB, Alabama

Prediction: Winds up the first pick of the second round, becoming a Detroit Lion. Splits time with Kevin Smith successfully (by Detroit standards) for 8 seasons. Becomes a favorite of Chris Berman’s due to the easy (read: lazy) puns that his last name affords. Never becomes a true starter in the NFL, but hangs on for over ten years. Retires and opens a chain of coffee/bagel shops in the Midwest (hey, Berman’s not the only lazy one around here).